The African Refiners and Distributors Association (ARDA) has warned that a 30-day suspension of petroleum product imports could grind Africa‘s economies to a halt—grounding planes, immobilising trucks, shutting down hospitals, and disrupting essential supply chains.
Despite producing more than five million barrels of crude oil daily, Africa imports over 70% of its refined petroleum products, making it highly vulnerable to global supply shocks.
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“If imports were to stop, the collapse wouldn’t just be technical—it would be systemic,” said ARDA Executive Secretary Anibor Kragha during the ARDA Week 2025 conference in Cape Town. “Africa’s deep reliance on fuel imports leaves it exposed to shocks with immediate and far-reaching consequences.”
Severe cross-sector impact
A prolonged disruption, ARDA noted, would cripple aviation, transport, mining, construction, and essential services. Jet fuel shortages could isolate countries, while millions of tonnes of goods, medicines, and food would be stranded in ports and warehouses.
Diesel-powered generators—critical for hospitals, telecom towers, banks, and water systems—would shut down, threatening urban water supplies and leaving rural clinics without power. Mining operations in South Africa, Nigeria, Ghana, the DRC, and Zambia could grind to a halt, costing billions in lost export revenues within days.
Africa’s refining gap
Although the continent hosts over 40 refineries, many are outdated or underutilised. Nigeria, with a nominal refining capacity of 1.1 million barrels per day—including the new Dangote Refinery—still imports over half of its fuel. In Congo, refinery output remains far below national needs despite plans to boost production.
With Africa’s population projected to reach 2.5 billion by 2050, energy demand is expected to double, further widening the refining gap unless capacity is urgently expanded.
ARDA’s “Africa First” strategy
To close the gap, ARDA has proposed a five-pillar strategy: upgrading refining capacity, harmonising fuel regulations to boost intra-African trade, attracting investment through transparency, developing energy infrastructure, and expanding access to clean liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) to create jobs and reduce biomass dependency.
It is also urging governments to establish national and regional strategic fuel reserves, noting that many countries hold only a few days’ supply.
“Energy security is not a luxury—it is a lifeline,” Mr Kragha stressed. “Without energy sovereignty, there is no sustainable development. This is about more than infrastructure—it is about Africa’s future.”
