Ghana's cocoa output for the 2023/24 season is anticipated to plummet by almost 40%, falling significantly short of the 820,000 metric ton target, according to sources from the country's cocoa sector regulator COCOBOD. Several factors, including strong seasonal winds, insufficient rainfall, smuggling, damage from illegal gold mining, and swollen shoot disease, have contributed to the decline. The season's output is now projected to be around 500,000 tons.

The sources revealed that the cause of the decline, especially the impact of weather conditions, could not be immediately addressed through human intervention. In the previous season (2022/23), COCOBOD reported losing about 150,000 tons of cocoa to smuggling and illegal gold mining, locally known as galamsey. The cocoa swollen shoot virus, responsible for reduced yields and tree deaths, further affected approximately 500,000 hectares of farmland.

Efforts are underway to address the challenges, with plans to rehabilitate affected farms and collaboration with security agencies to curb smuggling. Despite the setbacks, the second source indicated that Ghana still had a chance to recover from low production volumes.

Ghana's production shortfall, coupled with deficits in Ivory Coast, has contributed to historic surges in global cocoa prices. London cocoa futures on ICE surpassed £5,000, and New York cocoa breached the $6,000 mark. The elevated prices are causing concerns for chocolate makers like Hershey, expecting a slowdown in demand from cost-conscious consumers.

Samuel Adimado, president of Ghana's cocoa buyers group, expressed concern over the “shattering” current output expectation. Member firms are reportedly rationalizing operations, with some staff being reassigned and contract personnel sent home. The rising global cocoa prices are believed to incentivize smuggling, potentially leading to higher losses in the current season. COCOBOD was not available for comment at the time of reporting.