Fitch Solutions predicts National Democratic Congress (NDC) likely to win Ghana’s 2024 presidential elections

According to an analysis titled “Positive Shift in Ghana's Political Risk Profile Following IMF Programme Approval” by Fitch Solutions, the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC) is expected to emerge victorious in the 2024 presidential elections in Ghana.

The UK-based firm attributes this projection to the rapid deterioration of economic conditions in 2022 and the slow progress in addressing perceived corruption, which has intensified anti-incumbency sentiment among voters.

The report states, “The rapid deterioration of economic conditions in 2022 and slow progress in the fight against perceived corruption…will exacerbate anti-incumbency sentiment among the electorate.”

It further highlights concerns raised by the IMF regarding President Nana Akufo-Addo's Free Senior High School program, labelling it as “poorly targeted.”

Any potential modifications to the program to control spending could weaken the campaign agenda of the New Patriotic Party (NPP), increasing the chances of an NDC victory.

While Fitch Solutions anticipates a change in government after the 2024 general election, it asserts that risks to Ghana's IMF program are limited. The report notes that previous NDC governments have sought IMF loans, and the current NDC leadership has expressed support for Ghana's re-engagement with the IMF.

Consequently, Fitch Solutions revises Ghana's “policy continuity” score in the Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 70.0 out of 100, indicating a positive outlook.

Despite fiscal consolidation efforts under the IMF program, Fitch Solutions predicts a decline in social unrest as economic stabilization and moderating price growth benefit Ghanaian households.

The report suggests that a more stable exchange rate, easing inflation, and a stronger external position will gradually normalize economic conditions, leading to a reduction in protest activity in the latter half of 2023. Consequently, Fitch Solutions raises the “social stability” score in the STPRI to 47.5 out of 100.

With these developments, Ghana's headline STPRI score increased to 63.1 from 59.4, positioning the country as a regional outperformer in terms of political risk. The average Sub-Saharan Africa STPRI score stands at 50.3, indicating that political risks remain relatively contained in Ghana.