In a recent publication on election and risk-related issues in Africa, United Kingdom-based research and data firm Fitch Solution has forecasted electoral success for National Democratic Congress (NDC) flagbearer John Mahama in Ghana's December 7 presidential election.
According to Fitch, the state of the economy will heavily influence voters' decisions.
During a webinar announcing the findings, Senior Sub-Saharan Africa Country Risk Analyst Mike Kruiniger highlighted the NDC candidate's lead over Vice President and NPP flagbearer Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia.
He noted, “We believe anger over living standards is giving opposition candidate John Mahama a lead in the polls.”
Despite expectations of policy continuity, Fitch anticipates significant changes in key markets, including Ghana. Kruiniger stated, “Although we do expect policy continuity to prevail, some important changes will occur.”
He cited challenges faced by the NPP, including anticipated public expenditure overruns ahead of the election.
While predicting an NDC victory, Kruiniger cautioned about potential instability in the sub-region due to insurgent activities in Burkina Faso and Mali. He emphasized the need to monitor security risks in West Africa closely.
The research underscores the significance of economic management as a central issue for voters and suggests that recent economic downturns under NPP leadership may provide an advantage to the NDC.
Despite the prediction of an NDC victory, Fitch is warning of potential instability in the sub-region due to insurgent activities in Burkina Faso and Mali.
They believe these risks will be compounded by the removal of UN peacekeeping forces from Mali in 2024, potentially creating a power vacuum that militant groups may exploit, impacting neighboring countries like Ghana.
